Il disastro di “Open to meraviglia” può diventare un buon case study di settore

Il gas scende a 33,5 euro al MWh sulla piazza Ttf di Amsterdam - Tiscali NotizieNucleare: chi ci è uscito e chi vorrebbe rientrarci. Le vecchie sirene dell’atomo cantano ora in Italia di Italia Libera   03-07-2024 - 05:57 Link copiato #iubenda-cs-banner .iub_ts_bc:not(.iubenda-custom-content) *,Professore Campanella#iubenda-cs-banner [class*=" iub"],#iubenda-cs-banner [class^=iub],.iubenda-tp-btn:not([data-tp-nostyle]){ 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background-color: #fff; border-radius: 0.5rem; box-shadow: 0 12px 24px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12); font-family: sans-serif; content: 'Loading...'; display: flex !important; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1; justify-content: center; min-height: 50px; text-transform: uppercase;}#speakup-player:empty{ display: block;} Alla Camera dei deputati, Elettricità Futura, l’associazione di Confindustria delle imprese elettriche italiane, aveva sottolineato ad aprile che le rinnovabili potrebbero garantire almeno il 75% del consumo interno lordo di elettricità, da qui al 2030, ipotizzando 12 GW all’anno di nuova capacità rinnovabile. Il ministro dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza energetica Pichetto Fratin si muove in direzione opposta, puntando ad una quota di elettricità nucleare compresa tra 11 e 22 % al 2050 con una potenza rispettivamente di 8 e 16 GW. Vedremo cosa si scrive in questi giorni nel Pniec (Piano nazionale per l’energia e il clima). Basta guardare qualche esperienza internazionale per individuare la direzione giusta, analizzando il caso tedesco e quello australiano ◆ L’analisi di GIANNI SILVESTRINI, direttore scientifico Kyoto Club, presidente Exalto Energy&Innovation► Pichetto Fratin ha affermato in una intervista al “Sole 24 Ore” del 29 giugno che, sulla base delle prime analisi della neocostituita Piattaforma nazionale per un nucleare sostenibile, l’Italia potrebbe puntare ad una quota di elettricità nucleare compresa tra 11 e 22 % al 2050 con una potenza rispettivamente di 8 e 16 GW. Su un altro versante, Elettricità Futura, l’associazione di Confindustria delle imprese elettriche italiane, aveva sottolineato ad aprile alla Camera dei deputati che le rinnovabili potrebbero garantire almeno il 75% del consumo interno lordo di elettricità, ipotizzando 12 GW all’anno di nuova capacità rinnovabile da qui al 2030. Sono due scenari contrapposti. Ma una cosa è certa. Si riapre il dibattito sul nucleare. Vedremo meglio cosa è scritto nel Pniec (Piano nazionale per l’energia e il clima), inviato a Bruxelles lunedì 1 luglio. Finora il governo ha parlato degli Smr (Small Modular Reactors), i piccoli reattori modulari, una soluzione su cui ci si è buttati in Occidente negli ultimi anni, visti i fallimenti in termini di tempi e costi dei pochi nuovi reattori convenzionali. «Il primo reattore nucleare modulare di piccole dimensioni Smr sarà operativo in Europa entro dieci anni al più tardi», secondo la uscente commissaria Ue per l’Energia Kadri Simson. Fra una decina di anni vedremo i risultati delle varie sperimentazioni sulle diverse tecnologie che si stanno avviando e avremo dati su cui discutere. Per adesso il primo tentativo di Smr negli Usa, NuScale, è fallito prima ancora di iniziare a causa degli alti costi. La Germania invece, fuori dal nucleare, spinge molto sulle rinnovabili. Lo sviluppo dell’energia eolica e solare ha consentito di soddisfare, per la prima volta nel 2023, più della metà della domanda del sistema elettrico tedesco da fonti rinnovabili. Finora, i prezzi all’ingrosso dell’elettricità nel 2024 sono in media del 30% in meno rispetto al 2023, tornando ai livelli visti l’ultima volta prima dell’invasione russa dell’Ucraina. La situazione è ancora migliorata quest’anno. Nei primi 5 mesi infatti le fonti rinnovabili hanno rappresentato il 63,4% della produzione totale di elettricità tedesca. Una crescita rispetto al 55,6% dello stesso periodo del 2023. La potenza solare fotovoltaica è aumentata del 35% su base annua nei primi quattro mesi del 2024, Gli esperti del settore si aspettano una crescita percentuale a due cifre nelle installazioni e nella capacità di accumulo solare nel 2024, raggiungendo gli obiettivi del governo di 19 nuovi GW. Si punta anche ad una accelerazione sull’eolico offshore. L’Agenzia marittima e idrografica tedesca ha recentemente pubblicato un documento contenente le specifiche per l’espansione dell’energia eolica offshore fino a 60 GW entro il 2037, rispetto ai 40 GW originariamente previsti per il 2035. Nel piano, circa 36 GW dei 60 GW previsti saranno costruiti nelle cosiddette “aree di accelerazione”, il che significa che lì i permessi di costruzione e di esercizio per le turbine eoliche offshore saranno allentati. L’uscita dal nucleare, peraltro, non ha comportato un incremento dell’uso del carbone, tanto che il contributo dei combustibili fossili è stato inferiore al 40% nei primi cinque mesi del 2024. Nei mesi estivi tuttavia il contributo eolico dovrebbe calare, a fronte di un aumento di quello solare. La transizione insomma è iniziata e dovrà affrontare varie sfide, a cominciare dall’introduzione di accumuli di lunga durata.Australia rinnovabile tra carbone e ipotesi nucleari. In Australia quasi la metà (46%) dell’elettricità viene generata con il carbone. Come uscire da questa dipendenza? Secondo il governo del primo ministro Albanese, il passaggio verso emissioni nette pari a zero al 2050 rappresenta l’opportunità per l’Australia di diventare una superpotenza nel campo delle energie rinnovabili. Queste rappresentano oggi il 39,4% della fornitura elettrica, un valore simile a quello italiano, pur in un contesto energetico e territoriale decisamente differente. Nel 2023 sono stati installati 5,9 GW rinnovabili nel 2023 e sono in costruzione 27 batterie di grandi dimensioni per un totale di 5 GW / 11 GWh.Il governo australiano intende istituire l’Autorità per l’economia netta zero per garantire che i lavoratori e le regioni realizzino e condividano i benefici della transizione. Ma l’opposizione vorrebbe invece puntare sul nucleare che dovrebbe iniziare a produrre elettricità entro il 2035 (con piccoli reattori modulari) o il 2037 (con impianti più grandi). Al 2050 con 7,2 GW questi potrebbero generare circa il 12% della produzione totale di elettricità. La produzione di gas dovrebbe fornire circa il 39% della fornitura di elettricità, mentre la produzione da fonti rinnovabili nel 2050 si ridurrebbe dal 98% del piano laburista al 44%. Il piano nucleare della Coalizione rappresenterebbe dunque un’enorme contrazione del potenziale delle industrie delle energie rinnovabili.Lo conferma un rapporto di Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Bnef) secondo cui un’economia australiana alimentata dal nucleare comporterebbe costi di elettricità più elevati e “suonerebbe la campana a morto” per gli sforzi di decarbonizzazione, se distraesse dagli investimenti nelle energie rinnovabili. Anche secondo l’agenzia governativa per la ricerca scientifica (Csiro) l’energia nucleare è più costosa delle alternative a zero emissioni di carbonio. La mancanza di esperienza dell’Australia nel settore si tradurrebbe in un “premio” di apprendimento che raddoppierebbe il prezzo del primo impianto nucleare. «Questo rapporto parla da solo», ha detto il ministro dell’Energia, Chris Bowen. È un altro esempio di esperti che confermano che l’energia nucleare è troppo lenta, troppo costosa e troppo rischiosa per l’Australia. Secondo lo Smart Energy Council (un’associazione che spinge per le rinnovabili), il piano delle opposizioni costerebbe almeno 116 miliardi di dollari, lo stesso costo necessario per realizzare il piano del governo per l’82% di energie rinnovabili entro il 2030 e un mix di energia rinnovabile quasi al 100% entro il 2050. © RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATAAiutaci a restare liberi Dona ora su Pay Pal di Italia Libera   03-07-2024 - 05:57 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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